Nancy McGuckin is an independent consultant and nationally known expert in the interpretation and forecasting of travel behavior.
She is best known for her ability to make meaningful analysis from complex data sources and her practical interpretation of research. She recently completed forecasts of travel by older Americans, migration and immigration patterns and trends, and forecasts of non-work travel for the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission.
In her early career, she worked for Barton-Aschman/Parson’s Transportation Group developing travel and ridership forecasts for major investment studies, such as high speed rail systems in Shanghai, San Juan, and Bangkok.
She specializes in social and demographic indicators of travel demand, and integrates data from safety, health, economic, energy, time-use, and other pertinent sources to develop the context for planning and policy initiatives.
Experience
Summary
Ms. McGuckin is a nationally recognized expert in travel behavior and a senior advisor to Federal, State, and local public agencies, policy and advocate groups, other consultant groups, and private clients. She draws insights from complex and disparate data sources and designs/assesses primary data collection activities to collect travel behavior information. She helps develop evidence to support planning and policies related to travel demand and mobility, energy use and sustainability, and health and activity. She is well-known for effective presentations, reports, briefs, and infographics for technical audiences, decision makers, and the public.
She specializes in data mining to understand long-term trends in travel behavior and develop scenarios and forecasts for future demand. Examples of her applied skills include:
- Forecasting and explaining changes in travel demand: Emerging Trends in US Vehicle Demand (EIA), Understanding Changes in Demographics, Preferences, and Markets for Public Transportation (TCRP H-51), Millennials and Mobility (TRB TDUF), Baby Boomers’ Effect on US Travel 1969-2009 (AARP), and Summary of Travel Trends (2009 and 2017 for FHWA)
- Intercity and Airport: Helped design and analyze a Gamified survey (archived here: http://lawa-staging.dopa.mn/) for MapLAX future development (LAWA), DFW and Love Field Passenger Surveys (NCTCOG), Interregional Travel: A New Perspective for Policy Making (TRB Policy Committee), Long-Distance Travel Parameters for Statewide Models (NCHRP Report #735)
- Active Travel/Health: Walking and Biking in California (Caltrans), Walking to School in California (SRTS and ALR), Trends in Walking (CDC), Active Travel in Texas (TTAT), “Collecting Health Data to Inform Urban Planning and Policies” (TRNews 299)
- Trends in Commute Behavior: Identified complex commute behavior, e.g. trip chaining (the ‘Starbucks Effect’), calculated mandatory and discretionary travel purposes during peak (Peak Travel), researched changes in commute behavior over the last half century (Commuting in America IV for AASHTO)
Ms. McGuckin works extensively with many large national databases, and is especially well-known for her work with the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data series. She was on the team to collect and analyze the 2017 NHTS. The change in sample and methods—address-based sample and web retrieval—makes her familiarity with the series integral to the interpretation of the new NHTS data. She developed the 2009 and 2017 NHTS “Summary of Travel Trends”. In addition, she works extensively with NHTS add-ons, both states and local planners, to conduct research and leverage the add-on data for a range of local uses and analyses.
Education
- Post-Graduate Studies, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (1997-1998) Psychology
- Montgomery College Maryland (1988) and SAS Institute, Cary, NC, (1993), Statistics
- Bachelor of Arts, Geography/Government Studies, University of Texas at Austin
- University of Isfahan, Isfahan Iran, 1978-1979, Junior year abroad with special research grant
Associations
- TRB Committee on Urban Data and Information Systems (ABJ30)
- TRB Task Force on New Directions for the National Household Travel Survey (ABJ45T)
- TRB Committee on the Effects of Information and Communication Technologies on Travel Choices (ADB20)
- Center for Disease Control Expert Panel on Active Transportation (since 2011)